Z Politics

Even if the Democratic National Committee decides to uphold the election results from Michigan and Florida it is virtually impossible for Hillary Clinton to capture the nomination.

If the last five contests vote the way the latest polls indicate and Michigan and Florida counts then Hillary Clinton will have 2,010 delegates and Barack Obama will have 2,118 delegates.

That means the remaining superdelgates will have to break 86% for Clinton for her to capture the nomination. Considering that fact that she now trails in the superdelegates department this seems about at likely as George W. Bush calling for an immediate withdraw from Iraq…Barack Obama on the other hand will only need 40% of the remaining super delegates.

It’s over Hillary face it.

Growing up as a young gay man in a small town in Northwest Colorado I was always drawn to California. Maybe it was because I’m half Mexican and there is such a heavy Latin population in California, especially Southern California. Maybe it’s because of after winters that could have over three hundred inches of snow I longed for sunshine and the beach. Or maybe it’s because that’s where gay people lived.

 Today after a four year long battle the California Supreme Court ruled that this states ban on same sex marriage is unconstitutional. This rules effectively says that same sex couples can now get married in the state of California. No more domestic partnerships, no more marriage light. Marriage itself.

When I called my boyfriend of a year and a half to tell him the news I was in shock. As we discussed it I cried.

After rulings that didn’t go our way in New York and Washington state I really wasn’t expecting this. I figured it would be a split ruling. And indeed it was but it was 4-3 vote in our favor!

But this victory will be short lived. It appears that after paying signature gathers the right wings has collected enough signatures to put a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage forever on the ballot in November. If passed it would nullify today’s ruling.

If my boyfriend and I were already living together I would seriously want us to talk about getting married before November, while we can.

But I will fight the proposed ban tomorrow. If it does go on the ballot Barack Obama will have to fend for himself. My efforts will have to stay here in California to fight my most important battle.

But today I am proud to live in California. I am proud of how far we’ve come. I am proud that somewhere in Colorado a young gay boy is looking to California for hope…Just like I did.

By now everybody knows Hillary Clinton’s once huge lead among super-delegates has not only shrunk it now belongs to Barack Obama.

However, until Barack Obama reaches 2,025 delegates it’s not over and Hillary Clinton can continue to sink her party and keep fighting. It is still possible for each candidate to become the Democratic Presidential Nominee for President.

First let’s say the last five contests go down like this.

Clinton wins Kentucky 66% to 34%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 53% to 47%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

Given the latest polls these results seem resonable enought.

If the last five contests happen like this then Barack Obam will need just…23% to the remaining super delegates to secure the nomination. Just 23%! Hillary Clinton clings to the fact that it is still possible. And itdeed it is. If she gets…85% of the remaining superdelegates she will get there…85%!

Once again I will admit it is possbile but it is also possible Al Gore will run as thrid party candidate.

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton. Her win yesterday in West Virginia must have felt great. It must have given all of her supporters new hope. The win was indeed huge! You can’t argue with beating somebody by 41%…Except that you can. The win was big but not big enough. According to my analysis last Wednesday Hillary Clinton needed to win West Virginia by 62% not 41%. So while her win was bigger than I thought it would be it still wasn’t big enough.

So now there are only five contest remaining. Is it still possible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama…Yes. But in order for that to happen the last five contests have to vote the following way.

Clinton win Kentucky 90% to 10% (Clinton will win this state but 80% isn’t going to happen)

Clinton wins Oregon 85% to 15% (No way. Obama currently leads here by 11%)

Clinton wins Montana 90% to 10% (No. Clinton trails by 6%. No way will she win by 80% on June 3rd)

Clinton wins South Dakota 81% to 19% (Obama leads by 12% here. So I see no way Clinton will win by 62%)

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 90% to 10% (Yeah right. Clinton will win this one but not by 80%)

So if this happens. And almost nobody votes for Obama in the last five contests then Hillary Clinton will be in the lead by…1 delegate…Despite her win yesterday it’s even more over than it was before.

Once again the Clinton campaign says it’s not going to quit despite the fact that she can’t pass Obama. She’s saying count Florida and Michigan. This despite the fact that she agreed in 2007 that they shouldn’t count because they broke DNC rules.

But she and her supporters are going to whine until the cows come home so I decided to do some math.

What if Michigan and Florida count using the votes from their January primaries?

In Michigan let’s give Hillary her win. And let’s give all the uncommitted votes to Obama.

That gives Clinton 85 delegates and Obama 62 delegates

In Florida let’s give Hillary her win too.

That gives  Clinton 105 delegates and Obama 69 delegates.

That givens Clinton 1,876 delegates and Obama 1,973

Then let’s move on to the remaining six contests. Let’s say it goes down this way.

Clinton wins West Virginia 69/31

Clinton wins Kentucky-66/34

Obama wins Oregon-56/44

Obama wins Montana-53/47

Obama wins South Dakota 56/44

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60/40

If all that happens Clinton will have 1,998 delegates and Obama will have 2,068 delegates.

Clinton will still be behind.

If Florida and Michigan counts then the winning candidate needs to get to 2,209 delegates to get the nomination.

Clinton will need 77% of the superdelegates to get to 2,209

Obama will need 52% of the superdelegates to  get to 2,209

Even with Michigan and Florida as is the math is still in Obama’s corner.

As everybody knows either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will need the help of the superdelegates to put them over the top (actually Obama can still get to 2,025 if he wins 84% of the remaining pledges delegates. No such path exists for Clinton)

If the last six contest go down like this then how will the super delegates need to break for either Clinton or Obama to reach 2,025.

Clinton wins West Virginia 69% to 31%

Clinton wins Kentucky 66% to 34%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 53% to 47%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

These results seem resonable based on recent polls.

If the last six contests turn out like this then Barack Obama will need…32% of the remaining superdelegates to put him over the edge to 2,025. Just 32%…Hillary Clinton on the other hand will need…80% of the remaining superdelgates to get her to 2,025…A tall tall order.

It hasn’t been a good week for Hillary Clinton. After chipping away at Barack Obama’s lead in states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania it looks like she’s running out of time and options.

There are only six contest remaining. Is it still possible for Hillary to pass Barack in delegates? Sure but it’s harder than it was 24 hours ago…According to my last analysis Hillary need to win Guam by 62% but she lost by .2%…She needed to win Indiana by 40% not 2% and she needed to win North Carolina 16% but she lost by 14%.

So now in order for Hillary to pass Barack the following needs to happen.

She wins West Virginia 86% to 14% (She’s going to win this state but it will be by about 30% not 62%)

She wins Kentucky 85% to 15% (She going to win this state by as much as 40% but not 60%)

She wins Oregon 73% to 27% (This is a tall order considering the last poll there had her down 12%)

She wins Montana 85% to 15% (Not going to happen the last poll I saw had Obama up by 6% here)

She wins South Dakota 70% to 30% (Nope latest poll has Obama up by 12%)

She wins Puerto Rico 86% to 14% (The “51st state” is the bigges prize left and Clinton will probobly win it but not by 62%)

If she pulled all this of she would be ahead by….1 delegate.

Is it possible? Sure. But it is also possible George W. Bush will resign before January. Possible but not even remotly likely.

Hillary’s once huge lead in superdelegates continues to shrink.

In December, Hillary was ahead by 108 superdelegates. In February her lead was down to 87, on April 4th it stood at 30. As of today CNN has it at just 14…This was supposed to be her trump card and it is virtually non existent now.

The Superdelegates

Even if Hillary Clinton were to win 100% of all the remaining contests she can’t reach 2,025 delegates. Barack Obama needs to win 75% to reach 2,025…So yes this will come down to the superdelegates. How will they need to break for each one of these people to become the nominee. First let’s say the last primaries go down like this…

Clinton wins Guam 60% to 40%

Obama wins Indiana 52% to 48%

Obama wins North Carolina 56% to 44%

Clinton wins West Virginia 60% to 40%

Clinton wins Kentucky 65% to 35%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

These results all seem possible given recent polls…

If the last nine contest do down this way then Barack Obama will need 33% of the remaining unpledged superdelegates to get to 2,025, that’s right he will only need 33% of the superdelegates to put him over the top…What about Clinton? She will need 76% of the remaining  unpledged superdelegates. That’s a lot…She can do it but she has an uphill battle…again.

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton on her Pennsylvania win yesterday.  She fended off yet another Obama surge to live another two weeks.

With only nine contests remaining can she pass Obama in delegates? According to my last analysis she needed to win Pennsylvania by 30% not 10%. That means in order for her to pass Obama the following needs to happen:

She wins Guam 81% to 19%

She wins Indiana 70% to 30% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 5%)

She wins North Carolina 58% to 42% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 9%)

She wins West Virginia 75% to 25% (she’s going to win this State but I doubt it will be by 50 points)

She wins Kentucky 75% to 25% (she’s gong to win this State but I don’t think it will be quite this big.)

She wins Oregon 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 10%)

She wins Montana  65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

She wins South Dakota 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

And

She wins Puerto Rico 65% to 35% (I think she may win here but I don’t’ think it will be by 30 points)

IF she does all of this she will be ahead of Obama by…1 delegate. Pennsylvania was a win but it actually wasn’t big enough to help all that much in terms of delegates.