The Superdelegates

April 23, 2008 at 11:25 pm | In Uncategorized | 1 Comment
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The Superdelegates

Even if Hillary Clinton were to win 100% of all the remaining contests she can’t reach 2,025 delegates. Barack Obama needs to win 75% to reach 2,025…So yes this will come down to the superdelegates. How will they need to break for each one of these people to become the nominee. First let’s say the last primaries go down like this…

Clinton wins Guam 60% to 40%

Obama wins Indiana 52% to 48%

Obama wins North Carolina 56% to 44%

Clinton wins West Virginia 60% to 40%

Clinton wins Kentucky 65% to 35%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

These results all seem possible given recent polls…

If the last nine contest do down this way then Barack Obama will need 33% of the remaining unpledged superdelegates to get to 2,025, that’s right he will only need 33% of the superdelegates to put him over the top…What about Clinton? She will need 76% of the remaining  unpledged superdelegates. That’s a lot…She can do it but she has an uphill battle…again.

Can Clinton pass Obama 2?

April 23, 2008 at 7:57 pm | In Uncategorized | 1 Comment
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Congratulations to Hillary Clinton on her Pennsylvania win yesterday.  She fended off yet another Obama surge to live another two weeks.

With only nine contests remaining can she pass Obama in delegates? According to my last analysis she needed to win Pennsylvania by 30% not 10%. That means in order for her to pass Obama the following needs to happen:

She wins Guam 81% to 19%

She wins Indiana 70% to 30% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 5%)

She wins North Carolina 58% to 42% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 9%)

She wins West Virginia 75% to 25% (she’s going to win this State but I doubt it will be by 50 points)

She wins Kentucky 75% to 25% (she’s gong to win this State but I don’t think it will be quite this big.)

She wins Oregon 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 10%)

She wins Montana  65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

She wins South Dakota 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

And

She wins Puerto Rico 65% to 35% (I think she may win here but I don’t’ think it will be by 30 points)

IF she does all of this she will be ahead of Obama by…1 delegate. Pennsylvania was a win but it actually wasn’t big enough to help all that much in terms of delegates.

 

I’m bitter…You should be too

April 14, 2008 at 5:50 pm | In politics | 1 Comment
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Once again Barack Obama has spoken the truth. And once again Hillary Clinton and John McCain are trying to make a big deal about it.

 

I honestly don’t see what the big deal is about Obama’s bitter comment. Are middle class blue collar workers bitter? Maybe, maybe not but I’ll tell you something. They should be…we all should be.

 

I am certainly bitter. I am bitter that I couldn’t openly serve in the military if I wanted to, that my boyfriend and I won’t’ have our relationship recognized by our own government. That as a public school teacher I see the conditions my students have to grow up in simply because they weren’t lucky enough to be born rich. I am bitter that we are now in the sixth year of a war that I knew was wrong before it even started. I am bitter that the last time I got gas I paid $3.85 a gallon. I’m bitter that so many people in this country want to put me in a box. I’m too white to be Mexican and since I’m not 100% white I’m not really white either.

 

I come from a blue collar family. My mom worked at a grocery store and my dad drove a truck for UPS. I lived in several trailers growing up.

 

And yes when I am bitter I turn to my own belief system and I don’t see anything wrong with that.

 

Look around you there is a whole lot to be bitter about and that is not elitist.

What would the map look like part 2

April 7, 2008 at 6:04 pm | In politics | Leave a Comment
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So if the general election took place today what would the electoral map look like?

Here is McCain Vs. Obama

 

 These polls would put Obama at 261 and McCain at 268…The white of Colorado means the latest polls shows a tie…This confirms my long standing belief that Colorado (a long time Republican stronghold) could end up being the Florida or Ohio of 2008…If the map looked like this whoever won Colorado would win the White House.

There are a couple of things I like and a couple of thigns i don’t like about this map…Obama looks to be in fairly good shape in Ohio, Pensylvania and New Jersey (big time states). And I am still impressed with the fact that the polls show him up in North Dakota. I also like that he could cause the Republicans to spend money in Texas and South Carolina…TEXAS for crying out loud…I don’t like seeing New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan red.

Here his the McCain vs. Clinton Map:

 

These polls would put McCain at 273 and Clinton at 265. If things play out like this McCain wins…Clinton has talked a lot about how she can win in the bigs states. This map shows that. She wins Florida, Ohio and Pensylvania but she still looses. How is that? Well…She looses in Washington and Oregon (those states haven’t been red since 1984), she looses Michigan and Wisconsin…Loosing those four states basicaly cancel out Ohio and Pensylvania…What about Colorado? While Obama has it tied Clinton looses it by 14%.

 

Can Clinton Pass Obama?

April 2, 2008 at 8:20 pm | In politics | Leave a Comment
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Hillary Clinton wants to drag the Democratic Primary out all the way until June. Fine, that’s her right but what would it take for her to pass Obama in delegates before the remaining super-delegates weigh in.

She sneaks past Obama if she wins every remain primary in the following manor.

She wins Pennsylvania 65% to 35% (not likely, recent polls show Obama within 10 percent)

She wins Guam 71% to 29%

She wins Indiana 65% to 35% (again not likely, the latest poll shows Obama within in 10 percent)

She wins North Carolina 55% to 45% (highly unlikely, the latest poll shows Obama leading by 13 percent)

She wins West Virginia 71% to 29%

She wins Kentucky 71% to 29% (she has a big lead in Kentucky right now but it’s not this big)

She wins Oregon 61% to 39% (once again not likely, the latest poll shows Obama within 10 percent)

She wins Montana 62% to 38%

She wins South Dakota 61% to 38%

and

She wins Puerto Rico 62% to 38%

All that and she’s be 4 delegates ahead of Obama.

Sure it’s possible but it won’t happen.

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