Z Politics

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton. Her win yesterday in West Virginia must have felt great. It must have given all of her supporters new hope. The win was indeed huge! You can’t argue with beating somebody by 41%…Except that you can. The win was big but not big enough. According to my analysis last Wednesday Hillary Clinton needed to win West Virginia by 62% not 41%. So while her win was bigger than I thought it would be it still wasn’t big enough.

So now there are only five contest remaining. Is it still possible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama…Yes. But in order for that to happen the last five contests have to vote the following way.

Clinton win Kentucky 90% to 10% (Clinton will win this state but 80% isn’t going to happen)

Clinton wins Oregon 85% to 15% (No way. Obama currently leads here by 11%)

Clinton wins Montana 90% to 10% (No. Clinton trails by 6%. No way will she win by 80% on June 3rd)

Clinton wins South Dakota 81% to 19% (Obama leads by 12% here. So I see no way Clinton will win by 62%)

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 90% to 10% (Yeah right. Clinton will win this one but not by 80%)

So if this happens. And almost nobody votes for Obama in the last five contests then Hillary Clinton will be in the lead by…1 delegate…Despite her win yesterday it’s even more over than it was before.