I am from Colorado. I love Colorado. Yet despite Roy Romer, Patricia Schroeder and Gary Hart Colorado has been a red state for almost  my entire life. 

Only in 1992 did Colorado turn from red to blue for Bill Clinton. In 1996 Bob Dole, who was from neighboring Kansas, turned Colorado back to red. In 2000 I was in college at The University of Colorado at Boulder. A friend of mine said I should vote for Ralph Nader because Al Gore had no chance of winning Colorado. I didn’t believe him so I voted for Al Gore anyway. I believed that if everybody who didn’t think Al Gore had a chance of winning Colorado voted for him he could win Colorado’s eight electoral votes. I was wrong. George W. Bush won Colorado comfortably.

In 2004 I was living in Los Angeles and canvassing for the Democratic National Committee. I swore to my co-workers that John Kerry could win Colorado. I was wrong again. But John Kerry did narrow the gap. Despite George W. bush keeping Colorado red in 2004 the state has been turning purple and even blue over the last six years. Before the election in 2004 the republicans controlled the state legislature, the governor was a republican, both senators were republicans and five of the seven congressional seats were held by republicans.

But today the democrats control the state legislature, the governorship, one senate seat and four out of the seven congressional seats. And after this November there is a possibility the other senate seat and an additional house seat will be held by a democrat. Not to mention the fat that Colorado hosts the Democratic National Convention this August and that Barack Obama has made Colorado the biggest target in his western state strategy.

What accounts for this political turn around? A big part of the credit has to be given to the Colorado Democratic Party. In 2004 when the republicans wiped the floor with the democrats Colorado was the one bright spot for the party. By getting the right candidates and focusing on issues like education and he environment the Colorado Democratic party has helped turn the state around.

But another factor is the fact that Colorado’s Latino population has increased greatly in the last ten years. This swing population has voted mainly with the democrats. A couple of years ago I was visiting a friend din Fort Collins (which is located in Northern Colorado close to the Wyoming border). I looked at the white people in their trucks whose lives involve the weekly bowling league and thought that even though I grew up among people like them I was no longer like them. I thought that it is the Latin population, of which my dad’s side of the family is part of, is what will save Colorado politically.

Another factor (if not the biggest one)is the influx of people from more liberal states (most notably California). They have brought their blue state values to a red state and helped move it forward.

But Colorado’s political progress has not come without a price. The new population has lead to urban sprawl and massive building in mountains. My great grandmother and mother, both life long democrats, bitch about George W. Bush and root for Barack Obama. Yet, they rail against the growth in Colorado. I think they don’t’ realize that the political progress in the state they have called home their entire lives is due to the very growth they don’t like.

You can’t have one without the other. If I had to choose between the read and undeveloped Colorado I grew up in or the blue developing Colorado I visit now. I have to go with the later. Progress comes at a price but it is ultimately worth hit.

So once again I will tell you people that Colorado can go blue this November. And even if I am wrong again there is no denying that the state has become more open and accepting of all people. And that in the end is the best thing about turning this red state blue.

All the hoopla about the DNC rules committee is over. The magic number has been moved from 2,026 to 2,118. Hillary was able to cut into Barack’s lead. But just  like with Texas and Ohio, then Pennsylvania, then West Virginia and then Kentucky it wasn’t enough to make much of a difference.

The Puerto Rico primary is tomorrow, while South Dakota and Montana are on Tuesday.

But according to my latest caculations it is impossible for Hillary Clinton to reach 2,118. Let’s say the last three contests go down like this…

Clinton win Puerto Rico 58% to 42%

Obama wins Montana 56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota 53% to 47%

These results seem resonable enought given the latest polls.

If that happens Obama will only need 15% of the remaining upledged super delegates to become the nominee…Hillary can’t get to 2,118 even with 100% of the remaining unpledged super delegates. If the results go down like this Hillary will have 2,102.

If 2,118 is to be a possibility Hillary has to get 100% of the remaining super delegates and the results need to change to this.

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 79% to 21%

Clinton wins Montana 56% to 44%

Clinton wins South Dakota 65% to 35%

Florida and Michigan were supposed to save her. But here she is and she can’t afford to loose even one primary to Obama.

Game over

Another handful of super delegates have gone to Barack Obama over the last few days. Hillary Clinton has manged to squeeze out a few more as well, but not as many as Obama which means she has fallen further behind.

It is almost mathematically impossible to get to 2,026. Even with the super delegates. She needs the DNC rules committee to rule in her favor on the 31st when it comes to Michigan and Florida or it is game over a week from today.

Let’s say the last 3 contents go down like this…

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 62% to 28%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 52% to 48%

This results seem reasonable given the latest polls. If that happens Hillary Clinton will need….100% of the remaining 199 super delegates to get to 2,026. There literally is no room for error left and with her RFK comment alienating even some of her staunches supporters it really is over.

I am so tired of hearing that Barack Obama can’t win over white voters. My fifty-four year old white mother voted for him for crying out loud.

Barack Obama has won 15 states that have less than a 5% African-American population.

Hawaii

Alaska

Washington

Oregon

Idaho

Utah

Colorado

Wyoming

North Dakota

Nebraska

Kansas

Minnesota

Iowa

Vermont

Maine

Of those states Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Minesota, Iowa and Maine are all possible swing states and add up to 52 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton says she can win the swing states but she certainly didn’t win those swing states.

So Kentucky and Oregon have come and gone.

What will it now take for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to secure the democratic nomination for President.

Let’s presue the last three contests go down like this.

Clinton wins Puerto Rico-62% to 38%

Obama wins Montana-56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota-53% to 47%

Those results seem reasonable enough given recent polls.

If that happens than Barack Obama will need…12% of the remain superdelegates to secure the parties nominaton. Just 12%…Hillary Clinton on the other hand will need 95% of the remaining superdelegates. 95%!

Given how things have been going in the superdelegate category the last couple of months I find it almost impossible that Hillary Clinton can pull this thing off.

Tomorrow Barack Obama will win the Oregon primary and Hillary Clinton will win the Kentucky primary. Hillary Clinton will vow to fight on but with two more super delegates going to Obama today she is offically fighting an impossible battle.

It is now mathmaticaly impossible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama without the help of the remaining unpledged super delegates. Even if Hillary Clinton wins 100% of the vote in Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico she will still be 2 delegates behind Barack Obama.

Yet she still claims she can do it.

Hillary just drop out. It’s painful watching a woman I once admired making such a fool of herself.

Even if the Democratic National Committee decides to uphold the election results from Michigan and Florida it is virtually impossible for Hillary Clinton to capture the nomination.

If the last five contests vote the way the latest polls indicate and Michigan and Florida counts then Hillary Clinton will have 2,010 delegates and Barack Obama will have 2,118 delegates.

That means the remaining superdelgates will have to break 86% for Clinton for her to capture the nomination. Considering that fact that she now trails in the superdelegates department this seems about at likely as George W. Bush calling for an immediate withdraw from Iraq…Barack Obama on the other hand will only need 40% of the remaining super delegates.

It’s over Hillary face it.

Growing up as a young gay man in a small town in Northwest Colorado I was always drawn to California. Maybe it was because I’m half Mexican and there is such a heavy Latin population in California, especially Southern California. Maybe it’s because of after winters that could have over three hundred inches of snow I longed for sunshine and the beach. Or maybe it’s because that’s where gay people lived.

 Today after a four year long battle the California Supreme Court ruled that this states ban on same sex marriage is unconstitutional. This rules effectively says that same sex couples can now get married in the state of California. No more domestic partnerships, no more marriage light. Marriage itself.

When I called my boyfriend of a year and a half to tell him the news I was in shock. As we discussed it I cried.

After rulings that didn’t go our way in New York and Washington state I really wasn’t expecting this. I figured it would be a split ruling. And indeed it was but it was 4-3 vote in our favor!

But this victory will be short lived. It appears that after paying signature gathers the right wings has collected enough signatures to put a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage forever on the ballot in November. If passed it would nullify today’s ruling.

If my boyfriend and I were already living together I would seriously want us to talk about getting married before November, while we can.

But I will fight the proposed ban tomorrow. If it does go on the ballot Barack Obama will have to fend for himself. My efforts will have to stay here in California to fight my most important battle.

But today I am proud to live in California. I am proud of how far we’ve come. I am proud that somewhere in Colorado a young gay boy is looking to California for hope…Just like I did.

By now everybody knows Hillary Clinton’s once huge lead among super-delegates has not only shrunk it now belongs to Barack Obama.

However, until Barack Obama reaches 2,025 delegates it’s not over and Hillary Clinton can continue to sink her party and keep fighting. It is still possible for each candidate to become the Democratic Presidential Nominee for President.

First let’s say the last five contests go down like this.

Clinton wins Kentucky 66% to 34%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 53% to 47%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

Given the latest polls these results seem resonable enought.

If the last five contests happen like this then Barack Obam will need just…23% to the remaining super delegates to secure the nomination. Just 23%! Hillary Clinton clings to the fact that it is still possible. And itdeed it is. If she gets…85% of the remaining superdelegates she will get there…85%!

Once again I will admit it is possbile but it is also possible Al Gore will run as thrid party candidate.

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton. Her win yesterday in West Virginia must have felt great. It must have given all of her supporters new hope. The win was indeed huge! You can’t argue with beating somebody by 41%…Except that you can. The win was big but not big enough. According to my analysis last Wednesday Hillary Clinton needed to win West Virginia by 62% not 41%. So while her win was bigger than I thought it would be it still wasn’t big enough.

So now there are only five contest remaining. Is it still possible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama…Yes. But in order for that to happen the last five contests have to vote the following way.

Clinton win Kentucky 90% to 10% (Clinton will win this state but 80% isn’t going to happen)

Clinton wins Oregon 85% to 15% (No way. Obama currently leads here by 11%)

Clinton wins Montana 90% to 10% (No. Clinton trails by 6%. No way will she win by 80% on June 3rd)

Clinton wins South Dakota 81% to 19% (Obama leads by 12% here. So I see no way Clinton will win by 62%)

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 90% to 10% (Yeah right. Clinton will win this one but not by 80%)

So if this happens. And almost nobody votes for Obama in the last five contests then Hillary Clinton will be in the lead by…1 delegate…Despite her win yesterday it’s even more over than it was before.