Z Politics

As expected Hillary Clinton won big time yesterday in Kentucky and Barack Obama won comfortably in Oregon. But the question must be asked. Can Hillary Clinton pass Barack Obama. The answer is…No. It is mathematically impossible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama based on pledged delegates alone.

According to my last analysis Hillary Clinton needed to win Kentucky by 80% not 35% and she needed to win Oregon by 70% not lose by 18%.

So even if Hillary Clinton wins 100% of the vote in Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico she will still be 99 delegates behind Barack Obama.

She will continue on. Why not there’s only two weeks left. But the numbers don’t lie.

The Superdelegates

Even if Hillary Clinton were to win 100% of all the remaining contests she can’t reach 2,025 delegates. Barack Obama needs to win 75% to reach 2,025…So yes this will come down to the superdelegates. How will they need to break for each one of these people to become the nominee. First let’s say the last primaries go down like this…

Clinton wins Guam 60% to 40%

Obama wins Indiana 52% to 48%

Obama wins North Carolina 56% to 44%

Clinton wins West Virginia 60% to 40%

Clinton wins Kentucky 65% to 35%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

These results all seem possible given recent polls…

If the last nine contest do down this way then Barack Obama will need 33% of the remaining unpledged superdelegates to get to 2,025, that’s right he will only need 33% of the superdelegates to put him over the top…What about Clinton? She will need 76% of the remaining  unpledged superdelegates. That’s a lot…She can do it but she has an uphill battle…again.

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton on her Pennsylvania win yesterday.  She fended off yet another Obama surge to live another two weeks.

With only nine contests remaining can she pass Obama in delegates? According to my last analysis she needed to win Pennsylvania by 30% not 10%. That means in order for her to pass Obama the following needs to happen:

She wins Guam 81% to 19%

She wins Indiana 70% to 30% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 5%)

She wins North Carolina 58% to 42% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 9%)

She wins West Virginia 75% to 25% (she’s going to win this State but I doubt it will be by 50 points)

She wins Kentucky 75% to 25% (she’s gong to win this State but I don’t think it will be quite this big.)

She wins Oregon 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest polls show Obama up 10%)

She wins Montana  65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

She wins South Dakota 65% to 35% (not going to happen the latest poll I saw had Obama up)

And

She wins Puerto Rico 65% to 35% (I think she may win here but I don’t’ think it will be by 30 points)

IF she does all of this she will be ahead of Obama by…1 delegate. Pennsylvania was a win but it actually wasn’t big enough to help all that much in terms of delegates.