Genius or suicide?

September 1, 2008 at 5:46 am | Posted in politics | 1 Comment
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As expected the day after Barack Obama’s acceptance speech in Denver John McCain announced his running mate. However, he unexpectedly named Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin his running mate. This was shocking to me. I had expected Mitt Romney, Joe Liberman or if he did pick a woman it thought it would be Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson. I’m sure I was one of many American who thought Sarah who?

 

The pick of Polin was either a genius move by John McCain or a suicidal move.

 

I think it is very clear why he picked Palin. It is a clear move for all the Hillary Clinton supporters who still feel robbed by Barack Obama getting the nomination. On Tuesday night Hillary asked if they were in it for her or if they were in it for the issues. Unfortunately, I think there are a lot of women, and gay men, who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries in large party just because she’s a woman. And I fear that these same people will vote for John McCain because they want to make history by making Sarah Palin the first female vice president of the United States. I hope this isn’t true but I’ve learned never to overestimate the intelligence of the American public. My first thought when I hear that John McCain had picked a woman was that he had just won the election.

 

However, Palin is incredibly unqualified to be Vice President. Yes, she’s a governor but she’s the governor of a state who’s population is less than that of Aurora, Colorado. For those of you who don’t know Aurora, Colorado is a eastern suburb of Denver and it is not big at all. So basically Palin runs a moderately sized city. Plus she’s been Governor less than two years. How can Barack Obama’s four years in the U.S. Senate not be enough experience but Palin two years as Governor of Alaska is? Before becoming Governor Palin was in the city council and then major of her small town of about 8,471 people. I am from a town whose population is around that size and believe you me running a town that size does not prepare you to be Vice President to 300.000 people! So again Barack Obama’s eight years in the state legislature in Illinois isn’t enough experience but being major of a town that the size of three big city high school is? When Palin is running for Vice President not President. But the Vice President is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency and when the President is as old as John McCain could be you need somebody who is ready on day one…And I don’t want to hear that John McCain isn’t too old. He may be of sound mind and body today but he has had cancer in the past as a person’s health after the age of seventy can take a drastic turn at a moments notice.

 

So if the American public is really paying attention to this race Palin’s choice shows how desperate John McCain is and how the Republicans are tied to big oil and how they still only have three cards to play…Guns, God and Gays…But the question remains is the American public really paying attention or are they as easily swayed and distracted as they were in 2000 and 2004? Only time will tell.

 

The Superdelegates 4

May 21, 2008 at 5:22 pm | Posted in politics | Leave a comment
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So Kentucky and Oregon have come and gone.

What will it now take for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to secure the democratic nomination for President.

Let’s presue the last three contests go down like this.

Clinton wins Puerto Rico-62% to 38%

Obama wins Montana-56% to 44%

Obama wins South Dakota-53% to 47%

Those results seem reasonable enough given recent polls.

If that happens than Barack Obama will need…12% of the remain superdelegates to secure the parties nominaton. Just 12%…Hillary Clinton on the other hand will need 95% of the remaining superdelegates. 95%!

Given how things have been going in the superdelegate category the last couple of months I find it almost impossible that Hillary Clinton can pull this thing off.

The Superdelegates 3

May 14, 2008 at 5:07 pm | Posted in politics | 2 Comments
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By now everybody knows Hillary Clinton’s once huge lead among super-delegates has not only shrunk it now belongs to Barack Obama.

However, until Barack Obama reaches 2,025 delegates it’s not over and Hillary Clinton can continue to sink her party and keep fighting. It is still possible for each candidate to become the Democratic Presidential Nominee for President.

First let’s say the last five contests go down like this.

Clinton wins Kentucky 66% to 34%

Obama wins Oregon 56% to 44%

Obama wins Montana 53% to 47%

Obama wins South Dakota 56% to 44%

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 60% to 40%

Given the latest polls these results seem resonable enought.

If the last five contests happen like this then Barack Obam will need just…23% to the remaining super delegates to secure the nomination. Just 23%! Hillary Clinton clings to the fact that it is still possible. And itdeed it is. If she gets…85% of the remaining superdelegates she will get there…85%!

Once again I will admit it is possbile but it is also possible Al Gore will run as thrid party candidate.

Can Clinton pass Obama 4?

May 14, 2008 at 4:58 pm | Posted in politics | 1 Comment
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Congratulations to Hillary Clinton. Her win yesterday in West Virginia must have felt great. It must have given all of her supporters new hope. The win was indeed huge! You can’t argue with beating somebody by 41%…Except that you can. The win was big but not big enough. According to my analysis last Wednesday Hillary Clinton needed to win West Virginia by 62% not 41%. So while her win was bigger than I thought it would be it still wasn’t big enough.

So now there are only five contest remaining. Is it still possible for Hillary Clinton to pass Barack Obama…Yes. But in order for that to happen the last five contests have to vote the following way.

Clinton win Kentucky 90% to 10% (Clinton will win this state but 80% isn’t going to happen)

Clinton wins Oregon 85% to 15% (No way. Obama currently leads here by 11%)

Clinton wins Montana 90% to 10% (No. Clinton trails by 6%. No way will she win by 80% on June 3rd)

Clinton wins South Dakota 81% to 19% (Obama leads by 12% here. So I see no way Clinton will win by 62%)

Clinton wins Puerto Rico 90% to 10% (Yeah right. Clinton will win this one but not by 80%)

So if this happens. And almost nobody votes for Obama in the last five contests then Hillary Clinton will be in the lead by…1 delegate…Despite her win yesterday it’s even more over than it was before.

Can Clinton Pass Obama?

April 2, 2008 at 8:20 pm | Posted in politics | Leave a comment
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Hillary Clinton wants to drag the Democratic Primary out all the way until June. Fine, that’s her right but what would it take for her to pass Obama in delegates before the remaining super-delegates weigh in.

She sneaks past Obama if she wins every remain primary in the following manor.

She wins Pennsylvania 65% to 35% (not likely, recent polls show Obama within 10 percent)

She wins Guam 71% to 29%

She wins Indiana 65% to 35% (again not likely, the latest poll shows Obama within in 10 percent)

She wins North Carolina 55% to 45% (highly unlikely, the latest poll shows Obama leading by 13 percent)

She wins West Virginia 71% to 29%

She wins Kentucky 71% to 29% (she has a big lead in Kentucky right now but it’s not this big)

She wins Oregon 61% to 39% (once again not likely, the latest poll shows Obama within 10 percent)

She wins Montana 62% to 38%

She wins South Dakota 61% to 38%

and

She wins Puerto Rico 62% to 38%

All that and she’s be 4 delegates ahead of Obama.

Sure it’s possible but it won’t happen.

Democrats are so naive

March 18, 2008 at 3:59 am | Posted in politics | Leave a comment
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After a brief break race and gender have once again become issues in the Democratic Presidential primary race.

This is no surprise to me but all over the place people are acting shocked. Democrats are so naïve. With Americans approval rating of Bush in the basement and many Republicans reluctant to vote for John McCain the White House was basically on a platter for the party. But as Randi Rhodes says only Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Democrats were so caught up in the idea of making history that they failed to look at what I consider the most important factor…electability. Poll after poll showed the most electable Democratic candidate was  John Edwards yet he was never able to finish higher than third after Iowa.

So many people I know said a variation of the following statement, “It would be so cool to have a woman president.” Or , “It would be so cool to have a black president.”

Call me square but all I thought was “Wouldn’t’ it be cool to have a democratic president. So we could actually get things done.”

I find it mildly amusing that while people said it would be cool to have an African-American President or a woman president there was never much of a push to elect this countries first Latino president. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was all but ignored.

Another thing I find amusing is that both Obama and Clinton have resorted to a scorched earth approach when it comes to pointing out the international diplomacy history of the other one. Once again one need only look at Bill Richardson to see real international experience.

But that doesn’t matter. Democrats wanted to make history. I just hope that the history that is ultimately made isn’t that John McCain becomes the oldest elected President in American History.

None of this means anything if the old white guy beat the woman or the black guy.

Data Says Obama part 8

March 10, 2008 at 3:23 am | Posted in politics | Leave a comment
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It’s hard to post this one because Obama has one survey that Hillary doesn’t. What that improved his average so take the Cook poll with a grain of salt.

Moving on. Clinton is starting to narrow the gap a bit. She does better than Obama in the Newsweek poll (by 1%). But she get blown out of the water in ABC news poll (by 8%). Head to head again McCain Obama still looks better than Clinton but is starting to show that she too could win (but Obama would likely win by more)

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 02/28 to 03/06 46.3% 48.0% Clinton +1.7%
Newsweek 03/05 – 03/06 1,215 RV 46% 48% Clinton +2%
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 – 03/02 LV 47% 50% Clinton +3%
Rasmussen (Sat) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 46% 46% Tie

 

John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 02/28 to 03/06 42.5% 48.0% Obama +5.5%
Newsweek 03/05 – 03/06 1,215 RV 45% 46% Obama +1%
Cook/RT Strategies 02/28 – 03/02 802 RV 38% 47% Obama +9%
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 – 03/02 LV 42% 53% Obama +11%
Rasmussen (Sat) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 45% 46% Obama +1%

Data says Obama part 7

March 7, 2008 at 12:47 am | Posted in politics | 1 Comment
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For the first time Clinton pulls ahead of McCain in the average of the head-to-head match ups. Also for the first time she does better than Obama in one poll, the Rasmussen has her down 1% to McCain compared to 2% for Obama. Still Obama remains ahead overall. His average has him up 5.5% against McCain compared to 0.3% for Clinton…Is she starting to right the ship? And is it too late?

John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 02/20 to 03/02 46.1% 46.4% Clinton +0.3%
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 – 03/02 LV 47% 50% Clinton +3%
LA Times/Bloomberg 02/21 – 02/25 RV 46% 40% McCain +6%
AP-Ipsos 02/22 – 02/24 755 RV 43% 48% Clinton +5%
USA Today/Gallup 02/21 – 02/24 1653 LV 50% 46% McCain +4%
CBS News/NY Times 02/20 – 02/24 1115 RV 46% 46% Tie
Pew Research 02/20 – 02/24 1240 RV 45% 50% Clinton +5%
Rasmussen (Thu) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 46% 45% McCain +1%
John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 02/20 to 03/02 42.5% 48.0% Obama +5.5%
Cook/RT Strategies 02/28 – 03/02 802 RV 38% 47% Obama +9%
ABC/Wash Post 02/28 – 03/02 LV 42% 53% Obama +11%
LA Times/Bloomberg 02/21 – 02/25 RV 44% 42% McCain +2%
AP-Ipsos 02/22 – 02/24 755 RV 41% 51% Obama +10%
USA Today/Gallup 02/21 – 02/24 1653 LV 48% 47% McCain +1%
CBS News/NY Times 02/20 – 02/24 1115 RV 38% 50% Obama +12%
Pew Research 02/20 – 02/24 1240 RV 43% 50% Obama +7%
Rasmussen (Thu) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 46% 44% McCain +2%

What if Michigan and Florida counted as is?

March 6, 2008 at 10:40 pm | Posted in politics | 1 Comment
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With Hillary Clinton winning both Ohio and Texas on Tuesday the democratic primary race is once again in question (although it looks like Obama will win the Texas caucus which will basically cancel out the gains Clinton made in the primary).

There is a great deal of debate about what to do with Michigan and Florida. Two states who broke and agreement they made with the DNC in 2006 and scheduled their primaries before February 4th.

May people (myself included) think these states should just re-vote. After all only Clinton was on the ballot in Michigan (a sneaky move on her part not taking her name off the ballot). And there was no official campaigning in Florida (although Clinton did make a few “fund-raising” stops in Florida the week before the primary). Clinton thinks the results should stand.

One thing is for certain the democrats need to figure out what to do with these two states. John Kerry won Michigan by 3% of the vote. Democrats can’t afford to let Michigan flip. And we all know how important Florida is.

What if Clinton got her way and Michigan and Florida counted as is.

Michigan has 156 delegates. Clinton won 55% of the vote and “undecided” got 40% of the vote. Presumably the people who voted “undecided” were voting for Obama or Edwards. But since Edwards has suspended his campaign let’s give the 40% to Obama. If that’s the case Clinton gets 85 delegates and Obama gets 62.

Florida has 210 delegates. Clinton won 50% of the vote, Obama 33% and Edwards 14% (the day before he dropped out). With those numbers Clinton gets 105 delegates, Obama gets 69 and Edwards gets 29.

How does that affect the totals…Adding the results of Michigan brings Obama to 1,651 and Clinton to 1,614 and Edwards to 55. Obama would still be ahead. And while Edwards 55 delegates seems small they could end up being significant should he decide to endorse.

So while counting Michigan and Florida would help Clinton close the gap it wouldn’t put her back on top.

Back from the dead

March 5, 2008 at 4:40 am | Posted in politics | Leave a comment
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Democrats want to fall in love and Republican slike to fall in line. And believe you me that even though many Republicans feel that McCain isn’t convservative enough they will vote for him in the fall.

 As for the Democrats. Had Hillary lost tonight it would before but Ohio keeps her campaign on life support. We will have to see what hapens in Texas but Ohio is hudge. Why?

 It is a swing state and even though I am an Obama supporter the fact that Hillary won Ohio will give her a good arguement going into Pensylvania.

Come November the Democratic candidate will need to hold onto every state that John Kerry won in 2004 and make up 18 electoral votes to get into the White House. There are basically three ways that can happen. The democratic nominee can win Florida or the democratic nominee can win Ohio or the democratic nominee can win Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico…Ohio eh? So mainstream and so big for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Can Obama win Ohio in November? Perhaps but I have to admit Hillary may have a better chance there.

I wanted this to be over after tonight. It is only March and I am already suffering from election burnout. But it is not to be.

I just want a Democratic president. McCain is only just beginning to show how tough he will be.

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